State of the Oceans — Log 92
YOUR WEEKLY BRIEFING FROM PARLEY
This image: The Litterboom Project. Header image: Parley Maldives.
PLASTIC POLLUTION
According to a new paper published in Science, the amount of plastic pollution entering the oceans is expected to triple over the next twenty years. Previous estimates put the amount of plastic reaching the oceans each year at about 8 million tons, but the true figure is much higher – at about 11m tons, according to the paper. By 2040, that number could be closer to 29 million tons per year. The paper also shows that all current and planned efforts by governments and business to curb plastic pollution will only reduce waste volume by 7%. Instead, institutional change is needed to stop plastic pollution and protect the habitats on which humans and marine life rely. More stringent measures would produce a drastic reduction in waste, according to the researchers. These include improving waste collection, particularly in the developing world, and recycling more waste, as well as investing in alternative materials and better product design to reduce the amount of plastic used.
CORAL REEFS
Carbon emissions are heating and acidifying the oceans, and, as a result, half of all coral reefs have died over the past thirty years. Yet results from a new laboratory experiment suggest that a large range of reefs in the Red Sea could be immune to the climate crisis. Researchers from the University of Eilat exposed Red Sea corals to temperatures far above their summer maximum, and the corals thrived. “We realized, holy sh_t,” said one author. “This is the only coral reef ecosystem that has a chance.” Of course, these ecosystems still need international protection against other threats, such as marine pollution – a feat that will demand unprecedented cooperation within the region. It’s also possible that corals or even genes from the Red Sea cold be transplanted to other reefs in an effort to boost climate resiliency. While corals transplants have had mixed success, recent studies show signs of hope.
GLOBAL HEATING
Scientists announced two major discoveries this week: First, a landmark study provides more precise predictions of global heating. For forty years, researchers have estimated that Earth’s temperature will increase by 1.5 - 4.5ºC if greenhouse gas concentrations double. This new report tightens the range to 2.6 - 4.1 ºC, reducing scientific uncertainty and giving governments a chance to make more informed decisions (if they decide to listen). Next, researchers have identified the first methane leak in Antarctica’s seabed. With 80x the warming potential of CO2, methane is the most potent greenhouse gas, and scientists suspect a well of methane could be stored beneath the southernmost continent. The cause of this leak remains unclear, and it’s possible that others have yet to be discovered. As one author said, “Antarctica and its ice sheet are huge black holes in our understanding of Earth’s methane cycle – they are difficult places to work.”
INNOVATION
From California to England to Tasmania, researchers are combating climate change by growing kelp forests. Many marine ecosystems and species naturally store carbon from the atmosphere, helping to mitigate global heating. In fact, kelp forests can sequester almost as much carbon as seagrass meadows, salt marshes and mangroves – combined. “Algal forests should not be left behind. They have been hidden for much too long,” said one scientist. Yet, unlike trees on land, kelp strands can become detached from their roots and move unpredictably. Without actively managing kelp forests, most of their carbon could be released back into the atmosphere. In the words of another researcher, “Truly removing that carbon from the global carbon budget would require that those kelp fronds somehow be buried, or transported to the deep sea.”
DEEP SEA MINING
A new paper shows that deep sea mining will devastate marine life far above the seafloor. By creating noise pollution and large sediment plumes, mining operations could threaten the midwater zone (200-5,000 meters) – which regulates nutrients, stores carbon, and holds 90% of all life on Earth. Though many companies have expressed interest and even begun exploratory expeditions, no project can start until the International Seabed Authority (ISA) finalizes regulations for mining activity across the high seas. The “mining code” is expected to come out later this year despite growing concern about the environmental impacts. “It’s very clear now that mining is going to discharge huge volumes of muddy seawater into these midwaters, and we need to begin discussing what those effects will look like,” said the study’s lead author. “It’s not a pretty picture.”
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